Weather, Storms & Hurricane Blog

Tropical Storm Fay Showing Off Her Core Over Florida

I’m now very impressed with Tropical Storm Fay in how she has maintained her structure and intensity while be well inland now for many hours. Actually, she improved her inner core and even fell in pressure after her pre-dawn landfall along the southwest Florida coast. A this hour (10:23am ET) she looks like a hurricane on her radar presentation, and looking at the first visible satellite loops, she’s still producing convection around her core. Before I know it, her northeast eyewall structure will over take my place here on the north end of Lake Okeechobee in the next few hours.

Flat Florida Everglades and Lake Okeechobee Keeping Her Alive?

Tropical Storm Fay’s inflow quadrant is feeding in over the Florida Everglades, Lake Okeechobee, and likely now tapping into the warm Atlantic coast Gulf Stream waters helping to maintain her strength and structure. Whatever the case and whatever is aiding her, it’s impressive to see her so organized now after all the struggling she did in the Caribbean and Florida Straits when over actual water.

I’ll be on the western edge point of Lake Okeechobee in the next hour, near Lakeport, FL, to sample a little of the inner core that looks so well developed now on the latest radar loops. I’m also very curious to read at a 11am what the National Hurricane Center thinks of Fay sustaining her overall structure like this now for several hours over mainland South Florida. Should be interesting.

I’ll have another update this afternoon.

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Tropical Storm Fay just couldn’t make it to hurricane strength before making landfall in the last hour (5:00am) on the southwest coast of Florida in the remote area of Cape Romano, FL. One thing Fay has come through with is significant rainfall over the whole southern half of Florida overnight and this morning. Besides heavy tropical rains, there have been almost endless tornado warnings much of the night, with a few confirmed tornado reports in Palm Beach Count, in and around the Wellington region.

As for chasing Tropical Storm Fay, I have yet to leave my home here on the northern end of Lake Okeechobee, as I was not impressed with her organization overnight and where she was likely to make landfall. South of Marco Island / Naples is not the prime chase area, especially at night, so I opted to hang back until daybreak. Her strong convective band associated with the eyewall / center of circulation will be moving over the western Lake Okeechobee region in the next few hours, and I plan to be out over this area.

The winds have been gusting here now into the low-end tropical storm force, but the rainfall has been very heavy. Lake Okeechobee is likely receiving significant rainfall and will get a major boost in the level the next 24 hours.

I’ll have more after sunrise.

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Fay The Pain - Tracking Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Storm Fay has been one hard storm to track and forecast over the last 24 hours, and this morning she continues to be a difficult tropical cyclone to track. Overnight Fay made landfall over central Cuba and now is about to exit the northern coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits. The northern fringes of Fay are about to move into the Florida Keys and Southern Florida mainland with gusty winds and a lot of precipitation per radar trends.

Fay is still forecast to become a hurricane before reaching the Florida Southwest coast overnight Monday into Tuesday. Right now I’m sticking with a Ft Myers to Sarasota landfall after looking at the latest models, and upper air charts. The weakness in the ridge stands out fairly well over Central Florida and Fay will have a hard time getting much further north than west-central Florida. There is even the possibility she could track more northeast across southern Florida if she deepens faster than expected.

Florida Drought Busting Are Coming

At any rate, Florida is going to get those drought busting rains we’ve all waited for over the last two years. Lake Okeechobee will see the wet side of Fay, so expecting the lake to receive a decent amount of rainfall over the next 36 hours.

Hurricane Fay Chase Intercept Coverage

I will be chasing Tropical Storm / Hurricane Fay along Florida west coast starting this evening, and will begin mobile updates from the road. I won’t be having to travel very far for this hurricane intercept this time around, so leaving late the perfect option for me today. I’ll be closely monitoring her every wobble on radar today fine tuning my target area for Tuesday. Stay tuned!

(1 votes, average: 4 out of 5)

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Hurricane Watches For Florida Announce Fay’s True Threat

Tropical Storm Fay continues early this morning to slowly organize just off the southeast tip of Cuba with 50mph winds. The National Hurricane Center has now issued Hurricane Watches for Southwest Florida coast, and all of the Florida Keys, and Tropical Storm Watches for other parts of South Florida, likely to be upgraded later tonight. Fay’s threat to South Florida, The Keys and the west coast of the peninsula has not changed in the latest forecast computer models, and most of them are in fairly good agreement of Fay affecting Florida late Monday into Tuesday as a category 1 Hurricane.

Fay Slowly Organizing Overnight & Forecast To Become A Hurricane

Overnight Fay’s inner core became better established after being torn apart on Saturday by the high mountains on Hispaniola. It’s been fairly easy to track the center this morning via Cuban radar loops, and the satellite presentation continues to slowly improve. Deep bursts of convection have sustained a small core overnight very near the Cuban coast, which is also why recon is not able to invest the system due to Cuban air space issues. Fay is expected to continue west-northwest across the tip of Cuba this morning and then ride the south coast of Cuba before a expected landfall later tonight.

Hurricane Fay Chase Intercept Likely, Updates Coming

I have a busy day today finishing personal hurricane preparations here at home, and planning for a Hurricane Fay intercept Monday / Tuesday time frame somewhere along the west coast of Florida. I will have further updates later today as I have time to watch visible satellite trends with Fay, and to see how much she can develop before crossing Cuba tonight. This will make a huge difference in how strong she’ll be in the southeast Gulf of Mexico and landfall along Florida‘s Gulf coast. Stay tuned for further updates on Tropical Storm Fay currently tracking over the warm waters of the Caribbean.

(4 votes, average: 3.75 out of 5)

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Tropical Storm Fay A Mess This Afternoon

Tropical Storm Fay remains very disorganized this afternoon after exiting the mountainous island of Hispaniola. The low-level circulation was significantly disrupted, and the latest recon had trouble fixing a center. Although, some new burst of convection are trying to develop near the broad center now over the warm waters of the Caribbean. With prime upper-level conditions and warm waters, Fay could make a come back without a problem. Right now landmass’s are the only thing inhibiting Tropical Storm Fay.

Tracking Fay With Forecast Models Maps

The latest forecast computer model tracks have continue to show a Florida threat in 3 days after crossing Cuba. As you can see in the above track models map, most models re-curve Fay either as a Hurricane or tropical storm across central Cuba and the Florida Keys, and then into the Florida peninsula late Monday into Tuesday. Timing of Fay over the waters tonight will have a large impact of course not only on strength but also future track.

Florida Media Already Pumping Fay

It’s going to be a long evening of watching satellite trends now that Fay is back over water. Will she become more organized and vertically stacked once again, or continue to struggle while approaching the Cuban coastline? I know everyone here in Florida is watching closely tonight as local media is already doing hourly coverage. Governor Charlie Crist said on local TV, he had pre-emptively declared a state of emergency with the approach of Fay and partially activated the state emergency management office in Tallahassee, FL. Crist was urging Floridians to ready themselves for possible hurricane conditions in a few days.

Personal Preparations For A Possible Hurricane

Kersten and I will be shopping for our food supplies this evening just in case, so all of this is out of the way if I need to depart for the coast for a hurricane intercept. Some of the latest track forecast bring Fay pretty much right over my house. Will continue some preparations this evening to remain on the safe side.

I’ll be continuing to monitor Fay into the evening and overnight hours, and will have another update later tonight. Stay tuned.

(3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5)

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Closely Monitoring Tropical Storm Fay This Morning

Up very early this morning due to Tropical Storm Fay that is currently over Hispaniola. Fay though could become a major weather event for my neck of the woods in the Monday / Tuesday time frame if you are to believe the latest computer forecast models. My first hurricane chase of 2008 could be a close to home event, so there is a lot to watch over the weekend, and some preparations just in case as well for my home and family.

Florida Threat From TS Fay Increasing

Tropical Storm Fay overnight surprisingly has held together fairly well during her passage over the mountainous island of Hispaniola. Most of the deep convection is on the southern side of the storm now, but the hard to find center is about to re-enter the warm waters of the Caribbean later this morning. Once back over water, the forecast shows strengthening to hurricane status before reaching the southern Cuban coast very early Monday. From there is still too early to know if Fay will ride up the spin of Florida, along the west coast of FL, or further out into the Gulf of Mexico. A stronger Fay will turn her more northerly sooner, so the next 24-36 hours are key for Florida residents having to deal with a possible strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane.

There is a lot to cover, so expect several updates throughout the day and the rest of the weekend, with possible hurricane chase coverage for Monday and Tuesday. Stay tuned!

(1 votes, average: 4 out of 5)

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Florida Alligator Up Close with Storms Video

Last weekend I was out shooting thunderstorm video and came across a beautiful alligator hanging out in the sun. I’m just getting around to editing this video and getting it online and wanted to share it with all of you. It was a typical sea breeze thunderstorm setup along the eastern shores of Lake Okeechobee last Saturday, and I stopped in Port Mayaca, which is located in Western Martin County, right at the eastern side of the lake.

I drove up to the top of the lock for a better view of the developing strong lightning storm, and was greeted with a medium sized Florida Alligator relaxing in the sun at the base of the levee and erosion protection rocks. I knew this was a great opportunity to capture some close-up stock video shots in HDV of a gator since it was not able to race back into the water from it’s position.

So, I got out and grabbed my camera and tripod, and hiked down the hill slowly and setup about 15 feet away. I was able to shoot some beautiful video up close, with the gator getting up and walking, and at times with it’s mouth open. It made for some cool stock Florida Alligator footage. Shortly after I was finally overtaking by the thunderstorm and shot some nice shelf cloud scenes before heading back to the car.

You can view a small video of some of the alligator and storm in Windows Media format here: [ PLAY VIDEO ]

(2 votes, average: 5 out of 5)

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