Early Morning Thunder, More Storms Today

I awake to crashing thunder at 4:25am this morning as thunderstorms move overhead, with some very needed rainfall. The lightning show and thunder was a surprise, and a well loved one at that. I got up out of bed and sat in my office, watching the rain and lightning out the window. The rolling thunder was so nice to hear, after this long dry boring winter with no thunderstorms. It looks like a mid and upper-level disturbance, one several expected over the next 24 hours, moved through kicking off the storms over Ft Lauderdale, Palm Beach and Treasure Coast locations. More storms are expected this afternoon, some being severe along the east coast sea breeze boundaries, as another disturbance moves through central Florida.

Yesterday, I missed out on some severe storms along the east coast of Florida. I was too busy and by the time things got going they moved offshore. A few reports of wind and hail from Palm Beach County and up on the Space Coast. The same kind of setup this afternoon is in store, and I’ll be monitoring the local mesoscale boundaries throughout the day. Moisture and some mid level wind support is in place, just need to get some good surface convergence going, which the local sea breeze boundaries should help in that department for some storms today. If we can get one of these storms to move along the east coast boundary, there is a small chance of a weak tornado or two with the winds more backed along the boundary and east coast.

So my morning has started off pretty nice, a bit early, but nice. A little thunder with my morning coffee and hopefully more this afternoon with my ice tea. I will keep you posted on any storms I come across later today.

Oh! Did I tell you how excited I am that, oh man, FEBRUARY is almost over! Two days to go!

Update: 8:11am ET

Seems my storm outlook that I spoke of early this morning is coming together. The SPC upgraded the “see Text” to a slight risk for isolated severe storms and a Supercell or two. Monitoring more closely now, and will update later.

SPC Discussion:

…FL…
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY…WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND
MORNING RAOBS INDICATING MUCAPE OF 2200-2800 J/KG. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY AFTERNOON…WHILE WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE. THESE
FEATURES WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
COULD OCCUR OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

Update: 12:34pm ET:

New severe thunderstorm watch issued for central and south Florida. I’m already mobile and awaiting development. Currently monitoring several boundaries. more later.

SPC Watch discussion:

DISCUSSION…AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND S OF FRONT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR COUPLED WITH MDTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

Mobile update: 4:12pm ET:

Sitting along a southwestward moving outflow boundary / sea breeze enhanced along the St Lucie and Okeechobee county line not far from home now. Kind of nice that it’s been a close to home day and no 400 mile chase. Anyways - The boundary is moving southwest, while the main frontal boundary in sagging southeast. Convergence increasing as towers are developing more after a lull for several hours. Almost like the air dried out some, but feels like it’s mixing in the juicy air again.

Winds are backed now along the east coast at about 10-15mph, from the Space coast southward to about just south of Ft Pierce. This might enhance the small tornado chance this evening. Monitoring everything that goes up now and will update again later.