Is This Subtropical Andrea? May, 9 2007I was up early this morning, as I don’t like to wake to big changes when something is active in the western Atlantic. The current non-tropical low pressure gale storm off of northeast Florida and the Carolina’s, believe it or not, is actually looking a tad more organized early this morning. Deeper convection has increased overnight, with some more established banding. The center of the circulation is still open and void of deep convection, but that’s kind of typical of a subtropical type storm, so this might have the possibility of becoming subtropical. The convection is though getting closer with time to the center if you watch a long 12 hour sat loop. It’s going to run out of water here in the next 24 hours, so if it’s going to do it, it needs to soon. The National Hurricane Center currently has a recon flight en-route to get a better look at the structure of this system, and sample the wind field. They should be in the area shortly.

Bring On The Tropical Storm, What Did He Just Say?

A weak subtropical to tropical storm, would be great news for the Southeast US and Florida. A subtropical to tropical system has deeper convection and moisture with it, making for heavy rains, which is desperately needed in those area due to ongoing large wildfires, and the severe drought conditions. I talked about this several weeks ago in a post, Florida Needs A Hurricane Right About Now. A slow moving, weakening subtropical or tropical low pressure system would dump some nicely needed rainfall. So I like to see that convection is on the increase this morning, because this mean some one is going to get more than just some light sprinkles in the wrap-around precipitation.

Recon Flight IR satellite image with recon plane location icon

I have a busy morning ahead, so if for some chance they upgrade this system to Subtropical Andrea status, I might not get it updated here until after the midday hour. I will though keep update to date on this more later this afternoon. I just might have to take a drive to Jacksonville for some early cyclone playing fun. Only a weather geek would go after something so weak. Will they find a warm core, or semi-warm core system? More later today, have a good Wednesday folks.

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