Model surface winds outlook June 20, 2007Today is shaping up to be a day of possible severe storms, some rotating storms at that, and much needed rainfall. A weak area of low pressure will be developing over southern Georgia later today at the surface, while a potent upper-level system slides southeastward into the northeastern Gulf. This all will produce a southwesterly flow over the state of Florida, pulling deep tropical moisture northward out of the Caribbean and pooling it over the state. Local native sea breeze boundaries from the east coast and lake, will help to back the winds near the coast and lake, possibly producing some rotating storms, with maybe a short-live tornado or two. Straight line winds and hail look to be the main threats though.

There are only a few forecasters at the SPC (Edwards) that really go into detail ever on Florida out looked days of severe weather. The first day 1 outlook is a dink sentence about some pulse storms, but no mention of coastal boundaries backing the winds, the deep moisture in place, and being on the right-front site of this upper-level system. I’m sure later outlooks today will focus more on the state, but come on, work a little here.

Anyways - Yesterday was not as active as I though it might be. High clouds from the Georgia storms early in the day, put a slow hold on the east coast sea breeze developing and heating. Storms ended up firing, but remained some what weak. Today I feel I’ll have a better chase day, as there is a improved wind profile for today for severe weather and more to work with. I’ll keep you posted….

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