Caribbean Tropical Disturbance, Monitoring Area
Posted by Jeff Gammons on 21 Jun 2007 at 4:31 pm
Tagged as: Florida Weather, Tropical Weather
Interesting morning, and now afternoon in the southwest Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave / tropical disturbance, has been very active much of the day down there, with deep consistent convection (thunderstorms), with signs of some upper level outflow (fanning) to the north of the system. Looking at Hi-Rez visible satellite loops, you can see some decent inflow surface convergence on the southeast side of the system, which bolds well for developing convection. Overall the system looks to be either stationary, or slightly moving to the west-northwest, but some hints of even a more northwest motion. It’s hard to tell if it’s just the outflow making it look like it’s moving more northerly, or a true motion.
My Tropical Thoughts:
If this system does not move into central America overnight, and continues more northwest, then we might have something on the table tropical cyclone wise. This also depends on if convection continues overnight, which it has much of the day, so we will have to see and monitor. Shear is relaxing by the minute in the area, and a upper-level ridge is forecast to build in over the Gulf of Mexico. Interesting things could come together if it stays off the Central American mainland, and thunderstorms continue to maintain along the wave…….monitoring the southwest Caribbean.
Florida Low and Lightning Storm Time Lapse Video Day
I just returned from shooting some very cool thunderstorm time lapse and lightning video here in Florida. I’ll have those clips and photos up for tomorrows post…so check back for that update.

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