Weather, Storms & Hurricane Blog

As we near the end of June, the tropics have pretty much been quiet during the first 4 weeks of Hurricane Season 2007. We’ve had a few invests, but nothing ever came of the them. There still remains some decent shear over the tropical zones, and a lot of dry air. This is typical most of the time for June to be slow. Most development happens in the western Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico during the early weeks of the season. The weak tropical waves are just now starting to move into Florida, and the first real one of the season is expected to be here on Wednesday, just enhancing our rain chances and breezy conditions at the coast.

Things Can Start Off Quiet, But Can Change Fast

As we move into July, the westerlies (mid-upper level winds) start to relax and shift more north over the tropical Atlantic basin, making it less hostile for developing tropical storms and hurricanes. The sea surface temperatures continue to warm into late July and August, and tropical activity will begin to increase. I’ve always had a hard time getting through June and early July, as I’m always looking forward to developing cyclones to track and intercept. June and July Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, are normally weak, or sheared systems from strong upper-levels winds, and also having to deal with dry air and cooler waters.

I have received maybe a half dozen emails about, “do you think the season is dead?”. No, it’s normal for it to start off slow. It’s not like the 2005 season when things cranked up real early. Things can change fast and before you know it, the season can ramp up on your overnight. It only takes one hurricane to make the whole season bad for a portion of the coastline and that could happen between now, and through November, so we have a very long way to go.

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