Which System Will Get Tropical Storm Chantal Status?

Tropical Depression 4? / Invest 99L

TD3 NowTropical Storm Chantal

Well finally something has formed in the Atlantic to track, but nothing to really write home about, yet. Tropical Depression Three (Chantal) formed late last night over the north Atlantic, and still has a chance to take the Chantal name, if the system (invest 99L) in the central Atlantic doesn’t first, more on that in just a second. TD3 is moving pretty fast towards the northeast and out to sea about 400 miles north of Bermuda and doesn’t pose a threat to any landmass’s, but will be some what of a pain for shipping lanes.

Update: The title question was answered shortly after publishing this post. TD#3 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chantal.

WTNT63 KNHC 311213
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH…65 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANTAL IS LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES…530 KM…SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH…37 KM/HR. CHANTAL IS NOT A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Invest 99L / Next Depression

The more interesting system I’m currently watching is invest 99L east of the southern Windward Islands. The strong tropical wave with low pressure is about 700 miles east of the island chain and Caribbean. Overall the system continues to move westward near 15 mph with moderate to deep convection with some overall decent structure in satellite presentation. The first few visible satellite images are coming into frame showing two distinct inflow feeder band-like features, one to the south-southwest and the other to the north-northeast. Outflow features starting to show hints with some cirrus fanning to the north. Invest 99L looks to have slowed some since yesterday and this will only help to organize the system more. This could likely be our next Tropical Depression of the day and might get the Tropical Storm Chantal name first if it continues to organize as it heads for the Caribbean Sea.

There is some dry air to the north and west of the system and this could keep it from developing too fast, but if it can make it into the central Caribbean, this could become much more well organized. Today I’ll be monitoring the system via satellite for signs that a better low-level circulation is forming, and that continued convection persists, with more developed banding features. Sounds like a great day of developing tropical weather watching from the comfort of my home office while it’s 93F outside on this last day of July.

Long nights and days ahead

Tomorrow August 1^st opens to the more active hurricane season, climatology speaking, with the season peaking in mid September, so expect more tropical weather and hurricane coverage posts on this blog from now through the end of September as my busy time of the year kicks in.