Hurricane Dean Moving Through Martinique, Windwards
Posted by Jeff Gammons on 17 Aug 2007 at 7:07 am
Tagged as: Hurricane Forecast
Update - 8/18/07 1:53am ET Dean Now 150MPH and Nearing Category 5 status.
Major Hurricane Dean continues to deepen and intensify in the east-central Caribbean Sea early this morning. The latest recon data coming in from the flight shows that Deans winds have now increased to 150mph with a pressure drop to 930mb. This make Dean a very dangerous strong category 4 hurricane, but is expected to reach category 5 status soon. Stay tuned later this morning as a fresh new post will open the day with Dean coverage through the Caribbean and Jamaica.
Update - 9:51pm ET Dean Now A Strong Category 4 Hurricane 145mph
Major Hurricane Dean as been in rapid developing mode now, as he as now developed into a very strong category 4 hurricane. Rapid intensification has been taking place over much of the evening with the pressure falling rapidly and the winds are catching up too now to the impressive pressure falls. The eye is fantastic on IR satellite tonight, with a tight well developed eye. Dean looks like a true Caribbean hurricane now, and he could become even stronger.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH…CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
Very impressive indeed. Once Dean moved into these much warmer waters, and some better surrounding inflow mositure, it all came together to create a monster hurricane tracking toward Jamaica and the western Caribbean Sea. More to come, plus special coverage starting on Saturday through the Caribbean.
Update: - 3:16pm ET Dean Now A Category Three Major Hurricane
Hurricane Dean now a Major category 3 hurricane with winds of 125mph and a pressure of 961mb. Dean moved through the Windward Islands early this morning and is now in the eastern Caribbean Sea and continues to blast west near 25mph. Dean’s satellite presentation has improved throughout the early afternoon, and a small eye is once again trying to establish itself in the small core. I’ll have more details on the latest models and strengthening of Hurricane Dean later this evening.
Hurricane Dean currently moving through the Windsward Islands, and directly over the island of Martinique as the sun rises over the islands. Martinique has the strong convective burst that’s on the northern eyewall moving directly over the island, so they are likely experiencing the small hurricane strength wind field for sure. The east facing beaches are feeling the worst with the very strong easterly winds onshore and surge. The eastern Caribbean islands are feeling the worst of Dean as I type this early this morning, and it should last for a few more hours as Dean continues to blast westward and move into the Caribbean.
The sun is rising over the eastern Caribbean Sea to a potential developing monster of a storm later this weekend. It won’t take long for Hurricane Dean to move through the lesser Antilles today and move into the very warm waters of the Caribbean, especially the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Models still paint a large and dangerous hurricane near the island of Jamaica in a day or so, and near the Cayman Islands. The models did shift north just a tad with the new Gulfstream recon synoptic flight data from yesterday, but nothing major. There are a few factors that might keep Dean more to the north later in the track, but it’s not clear yet. More on this later this afternoon.
Dean remains not the best organized hurricane, as dry air continues to be ingested into the circulation from the west as noted in my post from yesterday. The surrounding environment is expected to improve later today and Dean should return to a faster rate of organizing and strengthening. A lot of Ocean Water Heat Content ahead of the cyclone, and moisture, so Dean expected to have plenty to work with for strengthening over the western Caribbean into a Major Hurricane, possibly a category 4 storm.
I wish the best to those riding Hurricane Dean out this morning in the Windward Islands and hope the damage is minimal. Those of you in Jamaica and further west in the Caribbean, you should be getting ready for a strong hurricane over the weekend. I’ll be continuing to monitor the trends of Dean and future computer track guidance throughout the day, so check back for updates later this afternoon.
(2 votes, average: 3.5 out of 5)
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My uneducated guess is that once it hits the Gulf- it’s anyone guess ….but if it were to head for LO- that would honestly be a nightmare!
Master gamonns:
Interesting observations from a common petty theif.
Petty thief? Please explain if you don’t mind. I love when you have to approve a comment that makes no sense. Well it’s been approved, vent if you must.
Oh wait! I see the Vero Beach IP Comcast account. That explains everything! No need to explain yourself, welome to hurricane season 2007. Thanks for the comment. Pingo!
Dean is a good start the “active” segment of the hurricane season. I don’t think, with the current forcasting, that I will be able to intercept this storm.
I always tend to anticipate a right (of forward motion) trend to the models. This is only a personal option, based on personal experience with the higher strength tropical systems.
With the extended forecast track not taking it out of Texas at the extreme, the mileage I’d have to cover to make an intercept (which may not even hit Texas) would be too great with my current situation). I still have to deal with Medical needs while chasing. A Louisana or other Gulf Coast target is OK, and anything in Florida or the Carolinas’ are OK.
I’m hoping for a good Carolinas storm this year, and hope Jeff will intercept this year too.
I forgot that with a hurricane of this size, they can create there own wind pattern, so if this hits the gulf, it can turn and go some place that the models did not show.